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#Nfl play by play data download#

There we found a very clearly statistically significant relationship.

So we ran the same analysis in the 2003–2012 dataset. This was barely statistically significant in the 2012 dataset, His wife chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisors in 20. Romer is a notable Berkeley economist, and Here, as with the rest of this fourth-and-2 analysis, we were inspired by aĢ002 paper by David Romer. Was calculated using both third- and fourth-and-2. Zone on third-and-short is pretty similarly successful to going for it on fourth-and-short, so we used both types of plays in this analysis. It turns out, though, that going for the end In the last ten years, there have only been twenty-five instances where teams went for it on fourth-and-goal at the 2-yard line. To see the analysis that yielded the 1.5% number. The very awesome Brian at Advanced NFL Stats does a great job ofĭescribing randomization and game theory. That is, the coach randomizes play calling enough to be unpredictable while still favoring the more advantageous plays.

The hypothetical coach does not always call the same type of play in the same situation.

Yardage from penalties committed during a play is included in the outcome.

Last minute plays have slightly different outcomes, so we exclude them.

There are more than five minutes left in the half or game.

Individual teams would vary, but the data we use is the average of all teams’ behaviors in whatever situation we are analyzing. We make the following assumptions throughout: It contains every third- or fourth-and-goal from inside the 10-yard line during that time frame. It contains every two-point conversion during that time frame.Ī subset of the 2003–2012 dataset. Still, the data for the other seasons seems similar in most respects.Ī subset of the 2003–2012 dataset. Our formulas are only tailored to the 2012 season, so there are a few difficulties when applying our formulas to the multi-year dataset.įor example, the older dataset doesn’t always distinguish quarterback scrambles from run plays. This data is excellent, though not perfect.

#Nfl play by play data download#

You can download the structured data in Excel to see the specifics of how we calculated various fields from the original data: Some plays are missing, and a very small number of plays have some inaccurate data.īut overall the dataset is comprehensive and accurate.įor example, the dataset only omits four of the roughly 1,000 field goals attempted in 2012. The original data does have a few errors here and there, not all of which could be cleaned up. Which we interpreted into structured data using Excel. Advanced NFL Stats is mostly free-text play descriptions,